The hottest oversupply LCD panel price pressure is

Oversupply! The price pressure of LCD panel is still difficult to relieve for the time being.

Xie Qin, general manager of IHS research, said that due to the active expansion of production capacity and the continuous opening of new production capacity by manufacturers in Chinese Mainland, the demand growth momentum is slowing down. From the perspective of supply and demand structure, the supply growth rate of LCD panel industry may exceed the demand growth rate in the next few years, which means that the panel price pressure is still difficult to relieve for the time being, Some panel manufacturers will also face losses

according to IHS survey data, at present, there are many high-generation panel plants with more than 8/8.5 generation lines under construction in Chinese Mainland. It is estimated that by 2022, there will be as many as 19 panel production lines with more than 8/8.5 generation in Chinese Mainland, including 9 a-Si/oxide generation 8 plants, 4 a-Si/oxide generation 8.6 plants, 5 generation 10.5/11 plants, and 1 generation 8 OLED panel plant. By 2022, it is estimated that there will also be 20 panel factories of generation 5.5 and generation 6

among them, BOE 10.5 generation line panel plant in Chinese Mainland has been officially put into operation in the leading quarter of 2018. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will gradually increase, and there is a chance to reach full capacity by the second quarter of 2019 (about April and may). As the main products of BOE's generation 10.5 line are focused on 65 inches, this is the reason for the price war of 65 inch panels

in terms of overall supply and demand, the growth rate of global capacity supply fell last year because Samsung closed one of the plants of the seventh generation line, accounting for about 3% of the global capacity. However, since this year, many new capacity has been opened, which will greatly increase the supply of panel capacity. It is estimated that from 2018 to 2021, the growth rate of panel capacity will be more than 5%, and the growth rate of supply in 2018 and 2019 will even reach 9% - 11% respectively, The demand growth rate is only 5% - 6% from 2018 to 2020, and may drop to 2% - 4% after 2021

Xie qinyi believes that this shows that the biggest challenge facing the panel industry in the next three years is oversupply, which does not include inventory adjustment pressure. According to statistics, as long as the gap between panel shipments and machine shipments reaches 7%, it will probably enter the stage of oversupply. Machine manufacturers must adjust their inventory, but new production capacity continues to open, making the pressure of oversupply in the supply chain even greater. Panel prices have continued to fall since the start of the decline last year, and have fallen by 3% to 5% in a single month

however, it is worth noting that the Chinese government seems to have begun to brake the capital investment in all industries (not limited to panel industry), and many local governments have begun to lock in unprofitable panel factories and stop or reduce lending, which may have some impact on the boom correction of panel industry

ole, but about 50% of them are new and customized D and mobile devices. It is expected to include all kinds of handheld devices, including smart devices, tablet computers, notebook computers. A-Si TFT LCD technology will still occupy a place in the next few years, but the penetration rate of LTPS TFT LCD will gradually increase. As for OLED, it is only in comparison with tablet computers. It is estimated that the penetration rate of OLED in the screen may be maintained at 15% - 16% by 2022 The penetration rate of tablet computers is even 2% - 3%. The main reason is that as long as you don't bend or bend, LTPS TFT LCD can achieve the effect that almost all OLED screens can achieve, and the cost is lower than OLED

for Samsung, which is actively building OLED production capacity, and panel manufacturers in Chinese Mainland, OLED will face price pressure, which is inevitable. It is expected that the fastest speed is 20, which is applicable to ul859 swing angle experiment. The speed is 25 times/minute (settable), and the tacit speed is 20 times/minute. In the second half of 18 years, the price of OLED panel will accelerate and shorten the gap with the utilization software of foreign experimental machines; There may be a significant decline in the double-digit range, including flexible OLEDs

on the other hand, the panel boom correction period is often the fastest stage of new technology development. For example, the trend of TV resolution changes significantly every six years. HD image quality reached 70% penetration in 2005 and 2006, FHD image quality penetration gradually exceeded 50% from 2010 to 2012, and 4K image quality rapidly climbed to more than 40% from 2016 to 2017. It is estimated that 8K image quality penetration may have the opportunity to accelerate its growth after 2020

in addition, Samsung launched 75 inch and 146 inch ultra-high-quality large-size TVs with micro LED display technology this year. It is reported that it has also received several orders from Middle Eastern princes and nobles, each at a price of about NT $2 million to NT $3 million. It remains to be seen whether the actual development in the future will be based on family or public space

qled technology is also developing. According to Samsung's definition, it is blue OLED plus qdcf (quantum dot CF), that is, TFT array and a layer of blue OLED organic materials are directly added above the glass substrate. Because there is no liquid crystal, no backlight, no polarizer, so there is no power consumption and materials, and so on. It is very competitive in technology and cost. But this is still in the development stage