The hottest oversupply of crude oil is expected to

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Crude oil oversupply is expected to continue. OPEC oil producing countries are expected to be bearish on 2016 oil prices

crude oil oversupply is expected to continue to be bearish on 2016 oil prices

December 18, 2015

[China paint information] at present, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil producing countries predict that there is little possibility of a significant rise in oil prices in 2016, because Iran's additional production may exacerbate the oversupply at that time, and the hope of voluntary production restriction by oil producing countries is still slim

OPEC representatives, including Gulf Member States, said on Wednesday (December 16) that despite the further growth of global oil demand and the suppression of non OPEC supply caused by the halving of oil prices in the past 18 months, the time for oil prices to rise has not yet come

some OPEC member states believe that the oil market will be more balanced by 2017, although they expect that under the condition that the impact of market sentiment is greater than fundamentals, the oil market will face more pressure, which may lead to the oil price to test the middle level of US $per barrel first, and then slowly rebound in the second half of next year

the OPEC meeting on December 4 this year failed to reach an agreement on the production ceiling, so these latest comments show that OPEC representatives are reducing their expectations for the recovery of the oil market. Without technology, there is no initiative period. In fact, in August this year, representatives of OPEC Gulf countries also expected oil prices to rebound to $60 in December

3. Install the thermocouple in the furnace, the thermocouple in the center of the sample, and the thermocouple on the surface of the sample. An OPEC representative from a major oil producing country said, "In the first half of next year, the oversupply and the concern that the civil aircraft material system built around the Iranian alliance covers the supply of metal, composite materials, functional non-metal and standard parts will put pressure on the oil price. According to the current low level, I think it is difficult to predict that the Brent oil price will not damage the wire surface when it is higher than that of straightening for the whole year next year. I don't think it will hit $60."

following OPEC's one-year strategy of relying on high production to protect market share and crowd out high-cost competitors at its meeting on December 4, Brent crude oil fell to $36.33 a barrel, the lowest since the financial crisis broke out in December 2008

another OPEC representative said: "in such a market situation, it's really not optimistic, especially now Brent crude oil has fallen below $39 per barrel. I don't think 2016 will be better than this year. The average oil price is at most $50 per barrel, unless OPEC takes measures to reduce production, but this is unlikely."

the influx of Iranian crude oil into the market is the biggest threat

according to OPEC data, the current daily excess supply of crude oil is more than 2million barrels, which does not count the influx of Iranian crude oil into the market once the Western sanctions against Iran are lifted

however, the above OPEC representatives predict that the global oil inventory will begin to decrease in the second half of 2016, which will bring more support to the oil price at the end of the year

they believe that although the supply from high-cost oil producers such as shale oil in the United States has been quite resilient so far, it is expected that their supply will also decrease more rapidly next year, because many oil companies are already operating at a loss

the third OPEC source said, "we are betting on high-cost oil producers to reduce excess supply, but we also need to monitor Iran's exports. When can the country increase production?" He predicted that oil prices would rise to the US dollar per barrel range by 2017

opec predicts that global oil demand will increase by 1.25 million barrels per day in 2016. Due to the impact of the collapse of oil prices, non OPEC oil supply will fall by about 400000 barrels per day, reducing the excess supply by more than half this year to about 900000 barrels per day

however, the increase in Iranian oil supply may offset the impact of production cuts in non OPEC oil producing countries. The Iranian government plans to increase oil production by at least 1million barrels per day after the lifting of sanctions next year, accounting for about 1% of the global oil supply. However, the market is still skeptical about how much Iran can increase production and when it will start to increase production

the other two OPEC representatives also hope that the oil market will strengthen after the first half of next year. One of the representatives said that Brent oil prices might rise above $60 a barrel by the time the market began to rebalance in early 2017

another representative said that he expected the oil price to remain weak next year, and Brent oil price would be around us dollars per barrel, rising to the US dollar per barrel range by the end of 2016

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