Asian demand surges, paper exports are not afraid

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In the morning of August 17, the paper sector led the market, with Fujian Nanping Paper up 8.91%. Although Europe and the United States conducted anti-dumping on Chinese coated paper, which made the domestic coated paper lose part of the international market, the sharp increase in demand in Asian countries led to the rapid growth of domestic paper exports in the first half of 2011. The Asia Pacific economy will continue to grow in the medium and long term, which is conducive to the stable growth of the export of the paper industry. Therefore, in the context of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States and the appreciation of the RMB, domestic paper enterprises can still seize the opportunity of eliminating backward production capacity and industry integration to achieve bigger and stronger. Sun paper, Yueyang Paper and Chenming paper, which have a sound integrated industrial chain of forestry, paper and pulp, and Cairn, whose products have pricing capabilities, will stand out in the waves of global competition

although Europe and the United States conducted anti-dumping on China's coated paper, which made China lose part of the international market, the sharp increase in demand in Asian countries was the main reason for the rapid growth of paper exports in the first half of 2011

customs statistics show that in the first half of the year, China exported a total of 2.265 million tons of paper and paperboard (uncut and formed), an increase of 22.8% year-on-year, with a value of 2.39 billion US dollars, an increase of 34.3%, including 12000 tons of newsprint exports, a decrease of 75.1% year-on-year; Kraft paper, inorganic coated paper and corrugated base paper were exported 64000 tons, 1338000 tons and 12000 tons respectively, a decrease of 2.6%, an increase of 22.8% and 180.3% respectively; The export of coated paper was 661000 tons, an increase of 10.4%

strong demand in Asian countries

the highlight of export growth is inorganic coated paper. The sharp increase in market demand in India and ASEAN has effectively alleviated the pressure of weak markets in Europe and the United States. It is expected that the Asia Pacific economy will be affected by Europe and the United States, so the growth will slow down, but the medium and long-term growth trend will remain, which is conducive to the stable growth of the export of the paper industry

in the first half of the year, China exported 175000 tons of inorganic coated paper to ASEAN, an increase of 22.3%, of which 125000 tons of inorganic coated paper were exported to India, a sharp increase of 1.4 times year-on-year; The export of coated paper to the European Union and the United States was 69000 tons and 30000 tons respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 51% and 60% respectively

coated paper is the most impacted by anti-dumping in Europe and the United States. Strong demand from Japan and ASEAN is difficult to alleviate the pressure on coated paper export enterprises. Due to the slowdown of economic growth in Europe and the United States, it is still difficult to cancel the anti-dumping of China's coated paper in the short term, so coated paper manufacturing enterprises still have some worries

in the first half of the year, China exported 90000 tons of coated paper to ASEAN, an increase of 43.1%, accounting for 13.6% of China's total exports of coated paper in the same period; The export of coated paper to Japan was 131000 tons, an increase of 21.5%, accounting for 19.9% of China's total exports of coated paper in the same period; Influenced by Europe and America “ Double anti ” As a result, China's export of coated paper to Europe and the United States has decreased significantly

the export oligopoly pattern has formed

the anti-dumping policies of major European and American countries, on the one hand, have prompted domestic export-oriented paper enterprises to step up their internal skills and optimize the product structure; On the other hand, it also intensifies the survival of the fittest in market competition. Industry concentration has increased, and excellent enterprises have gradually occupied a dominant position. Among them, Yanzhou tianzhang paper, a joint-stock enterprise of Shandong Chenming and sun paper, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Chenming paper, ranks among them

in the first half of the year, China's export trade volume was concentrated in the top 10 units in terms of export volume, among which Jindong paper (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd. and UPM Sichuan (Changshu) Paper Co., Ltd. continued to rank first and second respectively; Ningbo Zhonghua Paper Co., Ltd. and jinhuasheng paper (Suzhou Industrial Park) Co., Ltd. ranked third and fourth respectively; Shandong Chenming Paper Group Co., Ltd. and Ningbo Asia Pulp and Paper Co., Ltd. ranked fifth and sixth respectively; Puyang Longfeng Paper Co., Ltd., Yanzhou tianzhang Paper Co., Ltd., Henan Jianghe Paper Co., Ltd. and Heng'an (China) Paper Co., Ltd. ranked in the last four

domestic demand recovers slowly

since the international financial crisis in 2008, under the structural adjustment of China's paper industry, the national paper and paper products industry began to recover slowly in 2010, the growth of industrial sales output value of the whole industry continued to rise slowly, and the profitability of enterprises rose slowly

paper industry from January to June 2011. The total industrial sales output value created was 560.106 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.45%, and the growth rate narrowed by 3.04 percentage points compared with the same period of the previous year. The industrial sales output value in June was 112.512 billion yuan, an increase of 12.488 billion yuan over the previous month, and an increase of 21.53 billion yuan over the same month of the previous year

recently, the price of paper products has been basically stable, and the wood pulp has rebounded slightly.

in the week from August 8 to 14, the market price was basically stable. Due to no significant improvement in market demand and the gradual release of new production capacity of some paper enterprises, the performance of paper products has been slightly weak in the near future. Chenming Paper 800000 tons of coated paper was put into production in August, and the price of new products was 6200 yuan/ton, making coated paper slightly weak

among them, copper paper and double offset paper remained unchanged, and the price per ton basically remained in the range of 6200-6400 and 7000-7400. The market price of whiteboard is stable, and golden gull remains unchanged at 5600-5700 yuan/ton; The quotation of white cardboard remains unchanged, with a small fluctuation of 7200-7300 yuan/ton

newsprint and wrapping paper are obviously weak. Compared with last week, newsprint fell slightly. Due to the economic downturn in Europe and the United States, the price of wrapping paper with large export volume fell. In the international market, except for the moderate rise of kraft paper for noodles, the prices of other packaging paper generally fell

the price of wood pulp rebounded in the short term

due to the remarkable effect of destocking in the wood pulp market and the warming of transactions, the price of coniferous pulp, which had shown signs of stabilization in the early stage, rebounded strongly this week, the quotation of mainstream varieties generally increased by 150 yuan to 250 yuan, and the price of broad-leaved pulp remained stable

affected by negative factors such as the European debt crisis and S & P's downgrade of the U.S. debt credit rating, commodity prices and exchange rates in the international market fluctuated sharply this week, and the global economic outlook is uncertain. Under the circumstances of the decline in international pulp prices and the accelerated appreciation of the RMB, it is expected that the quotation in the wood pulp market will not continue to rise sharply

the appreciation of the RMB accelerated, and the exchange earnings of enterprises increased

on August 16, after breaking the record of exchange rate reform for four consecutive trading days, the RMB hit a new high against the US dollar again, achieving five consecutive rises. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.3925 yuan against the US dollar, breaking the 6.40 mark for the first time

as the largest pulp importer in the world, the paper industry is currently the third largest foreign exchange industry in China, with nearly 60% of wood pulp and more than 40% of waste paper to be imported. Because imported raw materials account for a large proportion and exports are small, the appreciation of the RMB is generally good for the paper industry

the Research Report of deppon securities shows that if the RMB appreciates by 1%, the net profit of the paper industry will increase by 3.25%; If the appreciation is 3%, the net profit of the industry will increase by 9.57%. In the first half of 2011, the net exchange income of Minfeng special paper increased by more than 5 times year-on-year, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of 24% in the company's financial expenses

however, paper-making enterprises can benefit from the appreciation of the RMB, but it is only the icing on the cake. Building a perfect forest, paper and pulp industry chain can ensure the steady development of enterprises. At present, listed enterprises such as Chenming Paper (000488), Taiyang paper (002078) and Yueyang forest paper (600963) with a high proportion of self-made pulp are less affected by the external environment, and metallurgical industry is at the forefront of the industry in the construction of industrial chain

due to the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate and the great impact of the global pulp demand on the economy, the pulp price priced in US dollars has fluctuated significantly. In 2008, the pulp price fell sharply, making the paper industry experience a long and painful period of digesting raw material inventory in 2009

although the RMB maintained an average annual appreciation rate of about 5% from 2008 to 2010, only a handful of paper enterprises maintained stable performance. Most enterprises only maintained low profits because they did not have a stable source of pulp, and their performance fluctuated greatly

in 2008, the price of international cork pulp per ton was up to more than $900, but it fell sharply in 2009, and the lowest was over $590 in May 2009. Therefore, the operating performance of papermaking enterprises that rely on raw material imports fluctuated greatly. For example, Qingshan Paper (600103) lost 195 million yuan in 2009, while the net profit in 2008 was only 5.9 million yuan, and the net profit in 2010 only recovered to 55.3777 million yuan. Several years of profits can hardly make up for one year's losses. Similarly, the net profits of Fujian Nanping Paper from 2008 to 2010 were 3.5662 million yuan, a loss of 447.719 million yuan and 10.9071 million yuan respectively. According to the operating conditions in 2010, it will take 41 years to make up for the loss in 2009

on the contrary, the performance of enterprises with a high proportion of self-made pulp is stable. For example, the net profits of sun paper from 2008 to 2010 were 229 million yuan, 479 million yuan and 636 million yuan respectively; The three-year net profit of Chenming paper was 1.075 billion yuan, 836 million yuan and 1.163 billion yuan respectively; Yueyang forest paper is 133 million yuan, 94 million yuan and 157 million yuan

at present, the performance growth of paper-making enterprises has slowed down, mainly because inflation has increased the proportion of residents' consumption of food, while living expenses such as durable goods have decreased slightly. In addition, a small number of originally exported products returned to the domestic market due to the shrinkage of the European and American markets, which depressed the price of domestic products and reduced the profit margin of the industry

however, there are many bright spot enterprises in the industry. Due to the high entry threshold of the special paper segment industry, the segment leading enterprises have maintained rapid growth by taking advantage of monopoly advantages

Cairn Co., Ltd. (002012), the leader of electrolytic paper, performed well in the first half of the year and is expected to accelerate its growth in the third quarter. In the first half of the year, the main business income was 475million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23.41%; The net profit was 62 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.28%. In addition, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first three quarters increased by 20.00% to 50.00% over the same period last year

China will vigorously develop medium alkaline sizing agent products. The increased pressure on environmental protection and emission reduction in the paper industry will increase the production costs of various paper-making enterprises, which is conducive to raising industry barriers, accelerating the withdrawal of small and medium-sized enterprises from the market, and is conducive to the expansion of industry advantages for leading enterprises such as Chenming Paper and sun paper, so the impact is small. Tianma Jinghua (002453), the leader of glue, can benefit from it





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