Comments on chemical warehouse receipt of Treasure

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The chemical warehouse receipt of the treasure island stock exchange commented on October 6

the warehouse receipt of the treasure island stock exchange reported that methanol fell by the limit across the board today. The settlement price of me0812 was 2934 yuan/ton, up - 122 yuan/ton from yesterday. 267 batches (1335 tons) were traded throughout the day, 3306 fewer than the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 9936 batches (49680 tons), 108 fewer than the previous trading day

methanol varieties:

on the first trading day after the national day, due to the negative impact of the spread of the US financial crisis on global commodities, methanol warehouse receipts plummeted across the board. 0812 and 0902 varieties were opened at the limit price in the morning. There was a lack of intraday buying. The heavy selling pressure made the limit not open all the time, and finally closed at the limit

news side:

(1) external market: FOB US Gulf cents/gallon flat, FOB Rotterdam. 25 euros/ton, and the low-end rose slightly by 0.25 euros/ton. CFR China's high-end dollar/ton fell by $5/ton, and CFR Southeast Asia's dollar/ton fell by $5/ton

(2) domestic market: the latest mainstream quotation in East China is yuan/ton, the low-end price is down 150 yuan/ton, and the high-end price is down 200 yuan/ton, which will also provide inexhaustible development power for the extruder industry; The mainstream quotation in South China is RMB/ton, which is temporarily stable; The mainstream quotation in North China is yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable

(3) manufacturer/upstream dynamics:

today, the quotation of domestic methanol manufacturers is basically stable. Since June, China's coal export volume has decreased significantly for two consecutive months, and the export scale of the whole year is expected to be basically controlled at last year's level. Data show that in the first eight months of this year, China exported 33.64 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%; The value was US $3.36 billion, an increase of 75.6%. Among them, China exported 3.37 million tons of coal in August, 1.41 million tons less than that in July and 3.62 million tons less than that in June. NYMEX crude oil November futures closed down $0.09 at $93.88 a barrel overnight

(4) supply dynamics:

three sets of 240000 T/a methanol units in Yima, Henan Province have been shut down for maintenance for about a month, and it is expected to restart at the end of this month. After the price increase of some methanol manufacturers in Northwest Shandong, the shipment slowed down

technical aspect (methanol continuous):

(1) price trend: the downward trend of the market in the medium term has not changed, the shock deadlock before the festival has been broken, and today it broke through 3000 points by jumping the limit

(2) K-line form and volume price relationship: the line was closed today. Due to the limit limit, there was no transaction volume, and the order volume decreased slightly. From the perspective of K-line and volume energy, there is no limit in the market, and there is still room for decline in the future

(3) moving average system (4,9,18) and support pressure: from the daily chart, the moving average system is still in short position; On the 60 minute chart, the short positions of the moving average system are arranged. Short term reference support positions 2800 and 2750, pressure 3000 and 3200

(4) index: short position below MACD zero axis on daily chart; KD indicator oversold area is empty. On the 60 minute chart, MACD crosses downward below the zero axis; KD index moves down in the oversold area. On the whole, it tends to weaken

styrene varieties:

latest developments in the spot market: the mainstream offer in East China styrene market is yuan/ton. Due to the sharp decline in the external market, traders lack confidence in the future market and have a strong wait-and-see mood in the market. The intraday trend of Styrene Market in South China was sluggish. Amoco polymers Inc. was the main aid provider of the project at that time. Due to the sharp decline of the external market, which had a great impact on market confidence, the short side of the market was dominant again, the downstream post holiday procurement was cautious, and the market transaction was light. (personal opinion, for reference only)

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